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The last premium newsletter of 2022 has been published!

Looking forward to 2023!

"Welcoming 2023 With Open Arms"
- And Why 2023's Outlook Isn't As Bad As 2022's Was
As we started 2022, we were annoyingly looking at this every day.

As we wrap up 2022, we get to have optimism of moving forward from it.

Crazy to see where the year ended.

2023 🎉🥳
POSITIVE OUTLOOK to 2023 for Crypto, Bitcoin Price Chart and Altcoin Market as 2022 Completes
And this is the new 75-gallon… which is still giving me a nightmare!

It finally started cycling after a month+.

But I added drift wood, and it released tannins and the water is now brown. 🤦🏻‍♂️

Time to try to resolve…
This is what the original main tank looks like. Water is crystal clear. Needs some plant removal and replacement.

But the water is perrrfectly clear.
Been at my computer doing charts and recording all day.

I can tell I’m longing for going outside, hitting the drums, cleaning a fish tank, and getting away from this computer! 😂

Must. Be. Human. For. Today. 🤖

Have a great day! Catch you tomorrow as we start wrapping up 2022!
FINAL CONSOLDIATION PHASE for Bitcoin Price Chart and Altcoin Market as History Suggests, XRP Repeat
@IOV_OWL You should see the mess in every bathroom as I’m changing every faucet in the house…
My wife and kids restocked the wardrobe for the new year. 👍🏻 🙌🏻 🎄
Market Caps Hold the Highs, Bitcoin Price Chart Structure, DXY Move, New Year Outlook, Holidays!
JUST IN: Alameda Research ex-CEO Caroline Ellison pleads guilty for involvement in frauds causing FTX's collapse.
Again, I'm not incentivized to post any of these. Just supporting the community. I bought all of these with my own money. Happy to show them off and support the growth of the NFT ecosystem on the XRPL.
And today, I was able to get my UnixPunk from the @XRPLPUNKS collection. 👍
Along with the other NFT's I've enjoyed collecting from the XRP communties creations, I also picked up one of @XRP_Productions DS Collection.
Also, the original BearableBulls ( @ClubXRPL) I got earlier last month came with a couple Rich Duck's
And the Bearable Guy Club Loadstar II from @ClubXRPL also came with a @PunkWorldsArt
It's been a little while since I've updated this list, so here we go with the other XRPL NFT's I've added to my collection. 😀

SUPPORT BOUNCE in Crypto, End of Year Pressure on Bitcoin Price Chart and Altcoin Market XRP Tonight
This 100%!

It’s ridiculous and frankly shameful that Chair Gensler was touting the SEC’s enforcement actions as the “cop on the beat,” yet (per public reports) MET with SBF multiple times, but was caught completely flat-footed when the alleged fraud finally came to light.
FIRST TIME IN 2022 Bitcoin Deviates from Stock Market and DXY, FTX Collapse, 2014 and 2018 Contrast
In addition, BTC has broken from DXY and Dow Jones.

All temporary due to FTX? Or something much bigger?

LUNA / UST did NOT cause BTC to deviate from stocks.

FTX did.

20/20 hindsight will have the answer in 6-months from now, I'd bet. But, what an interesting time!
Does it mean we can't pump up 100-200%? Of course it doesn't mean that. Big fat retraces can come at any moment.

But what all the data says is that 2014 and 2018 had massive confluence with one another. They were nearly identical behavior. And 2022 does not match those.
It's a weird time for Bitcoin. Because outside of the "diminishing returns bull runs but we still have 84% drawdowns every time" theory, we have broken nearly all indicators and behavior that occurred with those past 84% drawdowns, even though BTC is only down 78%.
Is that temporary due to FTX? Or something bigger?

Every indicator and behavior for BTC broke with FTX, while broader markets like DXY and DJI went the right way.

Even silver has had its biggest 2-year rally during this time, bouncing off $18.
2014 and 2018 had confluence in them with the oversold weekly RSI, monthly MACD flips, 50-week and 100-week moving average crosses, and DXY reversing.

2022 has broken all of those, and broke from the Dow Jones retrace.
Whether it was a temporary deviation from the black swan of FTX collapsing, causing all indicators to break and Bitcoin to deviate from the DXY and the Dow Jones... or, if it's a real break. The data is different from 2014 and 2018. That's not an opinion. It's data.
And while many wait for the 83-84% drawdown for Bitcoin, we can see that all these indicators that were confluence with the 83-84% drawdown in 2014 and 2018 are different.

Talk to the on-chain guys... they likely have a dozen+ cases to agree.
I'm always aware of the "fool me three times" fallacy.

"Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times, it's not going to happen."

In which we adjust our behavior recognizing the pattern. But then the pattern changes, fooling us a third time.
Prior to FTX, even the price behavior was acting like that of previous bottoms.

Not the case now.
By the time the monthly MACD had started to flip in 2015 and 2019, the bottom was already in.

Not the case now.
By the time we touched oversold on the weekly RSI with Bitcoin in 2014 and 2018, the bottom was in.

Not the case now.
To use 2014 and 2018 as comparisons, we can at look at simple indicators too.

Both previous bottoms had matching indicator behavior. One of them being moving average crosses.

By the time the 50-week and 100-week moving averages had crossed, the bottom was in.

Not the case now.
And, it doesn't reverse with the DXY.

DXY turns down, for the first time in the last decade, Bitcoin doesn't respond, but goes lower when FTX collapses.

With LUNA and UST, it didn't matter. Still followed the stock market. Now, deviates from stock market and DXY.
But for the first time in 2022, when FTX collapsed, Bitcoin deviates away from the Dow Jones.
We can see that Bitcoin has followed the Dow Jones all year long.

Even the LUNA/UST collapse, followed by the contagion of Three Arrows Capital and Celsius, did not cause Bitcoin to deviate away from the Dow Jones. The DJI was doing the exact same thing. They were holding hands.
We can see that the Dow Jones Industrial Average even reversed with the DXY, as the Dow Jones went back into retracement levels.
Unlike the past two cycles, that is not the case right now.

The DXY has reversed in a manner that we had already seen a 6X in the crypto market cap in 2017, and a 3X in the crypto market cap in 2020.

Yet, Bitcoin set a new low when FTX collapsed.
When the DXY reversed after the C-19 panic sell in March of 2020, it marked the beginning of the bull for crypto as well. The moment the DXY turned down, crypto began rising.
The fall in the DXY in 2017 sent the crypto market cap soaring from $18 billion into new all time highs the moment the DXY reversed in January 2017.
The nail in the coffin for me on "wow, the list is getting huge" is once I deep dived the U.S. Dollar Currency Index (DXY).

I did a big writeup on this, and I'll take some excerpts to show the inverse relationship.

Check how far the DXY has gone in relation to 2017 and 2020.
Since June, I've made comparisons to show how Bitcoin's price behavior, indicator behavior, and sentiment behavior had confluence of past bottom formations.

However, the FTX collapse has broken quite a few things, and I'll show them to you in this thread.
Bitcoin's current drawdown is just shy of 78%.

Hence, lots of $11k, $12k, $14k calls... to get 84%, we get to $11.5k.

Bitcoin will then have matched the past two in distance, even though the bull runs are getting drastically smaller... Smaller bull runs, same sized bears.
I can't recall ever seeing a top be the same percentage matchup. They are usually different percentage surges.

But, the 2014 and 2018 bottoms were both equal drawdowns in percentage terms on the market cap for Bitcoin.

Both were just shy of 84% pullbacks.
Before we start, let's just accept it was not "magic" for why Bitcoin topped in 2021. It was simple. It was a full 4.236 Fibonacci extension for the market cap. It didn't need a thousand indicators of magic to solve.
From a technical perspective, a lot of complications have come up once the FTX collapse happened.

In this thread I'll show the complexities happening in the crypto market compared to 2014 and to 2018.

This is no longer a "few" things, but has become a laundry list.

LIKE MAGIC Bitcoin Price Chart and Ethereum Reject Off Top of Range, Hunting for Reduced Volatility
I've added to the Blockchain Backer Premium Newsletter.

"The Power of the DXY and the Crypto Market"
- A Relationship on the Rocks

I recorded and included an 18-minute voiceover. It's chart-heavy, so will need to follow along with the charts too. 😀
Initial reaction to the Fed +50bps:

DJI -440
BTC -500

This is just the first few minutes.

Always interesting to see how these days go, as the moves can be erratic in both directions, and lots of fake moves.
For the first time in the hiking cycle, the Federal Funds Rate is raised above the 10-Year and 2-Year Treasury Yields.

+50 bps

10-Year Treasury Yield = 3.53%
2-Year Treasury Yield = 4.23%

Fed Funds Rate = 4.25%-4.50%
VOLATILITY GALORE as Bitcoin and Altcoin Market Push Against Resistance, CPI and FED Price Chops
Really cheering for Binance. If they handle the biggest crypto bank run without an issue… sounds bullish to me.
Sam Bankman-Fried's bail has been DENIED. Sam has been remanded to Bahamas prison until Feb 8th. Fox Hill prison (Bahama's prison) is one of top 5 worst prisons in the world.
To be clear: The SEC’s tag along complaint against SBF seeks to recover funds for FTX’s sophisticated equity investors, not the consumers who have been left holding the bag in bankruptcy court.
I’m not for causing panic over things I have zero way to corroborate.

But, there’s big outflows from Binance, confirmed by CZ.

Keeping coins on exchanges is dicey in this environment. And right now, eyes are on Binance.

Self custody ❤️
Markets will likely be moving so fast all morning that I think we'll just do it live. Could do +1000 then -1000 in this kind of volatility.

Can flip flop so quickly a video can become irrelevant in 3-4 hours.

I'll try go to go live shortly after legacy markets open.

DJI prints 1-minute +700 candle on CPI print.

+0.1% vs +0.3% expectations
@XRP_OWL For sure. Played those for countless hours.

Also loved Wave Race 64, Pilot Wings, and Star Fox.

But Ocarina of Time and Mario Kart were played the most, for sure. And Super Mario 64.
@XRP_OWL Dreamcast vs PlayStation vs N64 days.
USA Damian Williams: Earlier this evening, Bahamian authorities arrested Samuel Bankman-Fried at the request of the U.S. Government, based on a sealed indictment filed by the SDNY. We expect to move to unseal the indictment in the morning and will have more to say at that time.
@kovacs4congress I agree. But there was still the chance for that slip up that would otherwise be proven different in the future. Even “I’m not sure’s” could be proven incorrect in the future with text messages and emails.
SBF got arrested in the Bahamas just in time to not have to do a bunch of “uhhhs”, “ummms” and “I don’t knows” under oath in front of Congress.

How about that…
Little did he know, it would be FTX... Interesting take from back in June.
BIG MOVES and VOLATILITY EXPECTED for Bitcoin Price Chart, Altcoin Market and Stocks with Catalysts
BRACING for NEXT WEEK'S EVENTS, Bitcoin Price Chart and Altcoin Market Coil Before Fed Rate and SBF
FIRST TIME IN 2022 Bitcoin Price and Altcoin Market DECOUPLE from STOCK MARKET vs FTX LUNA UST
Lies are circulating @CNBC that I am not willing to subpoena @SBF_FTX. He has been requested to testify at the December 13th hearing. A subpoena is definitely on the table. Stay tuned.
@Amoonmxrp123 When I got home Sunday, I moved 37 baby fry from the filter area to the baby tank. There are still 15+ more back there, and 20+ in the main area of the 13-gallon tank.

The 75-gallon is up and running, with just a couple fish while I confirm it is cycling. 😀
I’ve got some kind of bug. Trying to work through it, but just need to listen to my body and rest today. Been running on fumes for days, time to fill up the tank.

I’ll be back tomorrow. 👍🏻
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